If I put myself in Baghdadi’s shoes and wanted to infiltrate my jihadis quietly into Europe pretending to be refugees, isn’t the Paris massacre the last thing I would want to carry out? My job – of an infiltrator – is now going to be infinitely more difficult.
I don’t want to go the conspiracy theory route but there has to be more to this story. With France’s cutting edge ‘Frenchelon’ and the ‘Echelon’ operated by the ‘famous five’ (US,UK,Aus,NZ,Can) working together in tandem, listening into every scrap of conversation going on in this planet, breaking into every bank account, with supercomputers filtering what needs to be paid attention to – with so many resources at work, it seems incomprehensible that this attack could go through the way it did.
Yes, we are dealing with folks who are just as willing to die as they are willing to kill. Yes, it can be argued that not even the most sophisticated intel gathering apparatus on earth can counter raw commitment of this sort. But the operation was just too slick and successful – so successful in fact, that those were supposed to make good their escape after, made good their escape – unhindered.
This has become a DVD playing over and over – Presidents and Prime Ministers, with their tense and studied looks of grief, eyebrows furrowed and their stares glazed, parroting the same line ,” We were monitoring many threads and chatter but there was nothing specific that would point to this….’
Are the most advanced SIGINT agencies on the planet really nothing more than a bunch of keystone cops? I doubt that very much. I cannot help but suspect that, like 9/11, while I am not suggesting that it was orchestrated, Friday’s carnage was probably allowed to happen.
(And I could name a zillion reasons why certain vested interests in the west might benefit from the public anger and the increased bigotry and intolerance in aftermath of an attack such as the one we saw on the streets of Paris).
Some western commentators and military leaders believe that a concerted military surge, with boots on the ground and human intel will finally vanquish these guys. I doubt if there is a military solution to this, surge or human intel or otherwise. You cannot militarily defeat folks who are willing to die fighting you. There is no longer a quick short-term patch available. The one that will work is called -real-hearts-and-minds, a.k.a. leave-them-the-fuck-alone.
No matter what spin you put on this, it is their land and always has been – that is until two guys named Sykes and Picot decided to carve it up among themselves, in 1916. A century of deceit and coercion later, these folks have gotten wise.
My advice to anyone living in the west. Don’t build any nest eggs. Live for today. What has begun is only likely to get worse.